1. Working Papers
(With Joseph Francois, Bernard Hoekman and Miriam Manchin) [Submitted]
Abstract: The literature on preferential trade agreements (PTAs) has mainly focused on the trade effects of non-trade provisions (NTPs) addressing environmental or labor policies. Using a dataset covering more than 120 countries and several decades, we employ a synthetic differencein-difference estimator to study whether such provisions are accompanied with changes in associated sustainability-related performance indicators in developing countries. Given the importance the EU places on using trade to pursue sustainability goals, we differentiate between EU and other PTAs. The analysis is motivated by two arguments that have influenced the design of deep PTAs: (i)
legally enforceable NTPs are more effective in improving nontrade outcomes in developing countries; and (ii) acceptance of NTPs will be accompanied by (more) aid from high-income partners. We find limited support for these arguments. Enforceable provisions have no effect on performance indicators, whereas non-enforceable provisions in non-EU PTAs are accompanied by deterioration in several outcome measures. Enforceable provisions are associated with less aid; we only find a positive relationship between EU aid and nonenforceable environmental provisions.
Already circulated as: Non-Trade Provisions in Deep Trade Agreements and Non-Trade Outcomes (WB WP series); Pursuing Environmental and Social Objectives through Trade Agreements (EUI Cadmus, CEPR, CITP)
Not All Waste Trades Alike: Material Archetypes in the Gravity of Global Waste Flows
(With With S. Bolatto and M. Tremuli) [Submitted, Under Review]
Abstract: International trade in waste and scrap has expanded rapidly, yet it remains under-explored in quantitative trade economics. This paper analyzes the determinants of waste flows across five major material categories (plastics, paper, glass, iron & steel, aluminum) using a gravity model enriched with bilateral tariff and non-tariff measures. Leveraging HS6 bilateral customs data for 2001–2022, we compare trade elasticities between waste and non-waste products within the same HS2 sectors to assess whether differences in trade patterns are material-specific. The results —robust to dynamic lead-lag specifications assessing systematic anticipation, and to heterogeneity analyses by income level— are consistent with three distinct archetypes: information-sensitive materials (plastics, aluminum), where technical NTMs display a pattern suggestive of certification mechanisms; complementarity-driven materials (paper), which exhibit inverted tariff elasticities reflecting technological lock-in in specialized recycling infrastructure; and commodity-like materials (glass, iron/steel), where trade responds conventionally to policy and geographic frictions. Our findings point to the value of tailoring trade and circular-economy measures to material characteristics, given the systematic differences observed across archetypes.
2. Work in progress
Beyond Aggregate Product Categories: Heterogeneous Trade Elasticity (With S. Bolatto, G. Orefice)
The Political Economy of Immigration (With L. Marchal, G. Willmann)
In Deep Water: firm level response to PAFTA (With S. Chowdhry, J. Hinz)
Trade agreements as a tool for environmental progress (With B. Hoekman, M. Manchin)
3. Eternal Working Papers
How Similar Are International Economic Relations of EU Member States? Comparing Trade, Investment and Political Behavior (with Matteo Fiorini, Miklos Koren, and Gergo Szavecz)